More Advanced Economic Concepts

Money is the root of all good.

Now all the pieces are in place to introduce money. As we saw earlier, trade made the world go round because it allowed specialization and the division of labor, which in turn increased production, which made society richer. The simplest form of trade is barter–I’ll give you this if you give me that. The problem is that trade requires what is called the coincidence of desires. What are the chances that a candlestick maker is going to want the fletcher’s arrow? Or the blacksmith’s horseshoe? The fletcher must first trade the arrow for something the candlestick maker wants and then go trade that item for the candle. The other problem is the problem of divisibility. What happens if a cow is worth three goats, but the goatherd is only willing to trade one goat?

The answer is an intermediate commodity. The farmer can trade a whole cow for bits of silver and then use some of those bits of silver to trade for a goat. The goatherd can take some of that silver and trade it for a candle. The candlestick maker can in turn take some of that silver and buy a steak, and so on. The major requirements for the intermediate commodity are that it be readily divisible, universally accepted (valued), have relatively high value for its weight, and preferably be durable. Eventually this commodity will become more desired for its ability as an intermediary use than for its other uses. The commodity is then known as money. A society may have several commodities that serve as money–for example gold and silver. Local communities may use commodities that other neighboring communities do not. For example, in prisons, cigarettes are often used as money. In late eighteenth century Pennsylvania, whiskey was used as money.

Money is the root of all (economic) good because it facilitates trade which allows for the division of labor, which increases production, which makes society richer (better off). Gold and silver were already established as money by the time the Israelites escaped from Egypt.

Savings make increased production possible.

In our topsy turvy world influenced by a quack economist known as John Maynard Keynes (Keynesian economics), we constantly hear that debt drives the economy. President Obama himself has even said as much. But this is completely wrong. It is savings that drives the economy. Take for example, a wheat farmer who is able to pick two bushels of wheat with his hands. He eats one and sells the other and uses all of the money on other consumer goods (meats, clothes, house, etc.) One day, he has an idea. Instead of using all of the money from the second bushel on consumer goods, he’ll go without (he’ll save) so that he can buy a sickle (a capital good). Once he has enough money saved to buy a sickle, he can harvest four bushels of wheat.

Is the farmer better off? He can eat one bushel and now has three bushels to sell instead of just one. Is society better off? It now has two additional bushels of wheat available. Everyone is better off. What made it possible? Savings. The farmer didn’t have to be the one to do the savings, however. Someone else could have saved and then lent their money to the farmer to buy the sickle. The farmer would then pay the money back with the additional money from the increased wheat production. In either case, whoever does the savings takes on the risk that the capital good may not work as expected and the savings will go to waste. If the farmer does the saving himself, he takes on the risk, but also reaps the full reward. The someone else does the saving, the farmer has less risk, but has to pay back a portion of the larger harvest.

So we see the Theory of Capital Production: Someone does not consume as much (saves) and then uses those savings to buy capital goods (investment) which are used to increase production which makes both the producer, saver, and society richer. A corollary is that if someone saves and lends to someone who consumes the savings, no one is better off because the savings were not used for capital goods (opportunity cost). Thus, we have an important lesson for getting rich.

Don’t borrow money unless it helps you increase your production.

For example, if you need a car to joy ride in, save your money and purchase it. If you need a car to go to work, consider borrowing the money, but only enough to get a car that will reliably get you to work. The next time you are considering whether to purchase an item with a credit card, ask yourself whether it will help you make money or not. If not, borrowing is simply making you poorer faster…and reducing the overall

Now I’m Free. Free fallin’

There’s one last effect that we need to mention from our example above about the wheat farmer. Do you remember the Theory of marginal value? (The more of something you have, the less you value any one of the units.) Well when the farmer now has three bushels of wheat to sell instead of just one, the value of wheat will go down, and so will it’s price in relationship to other items. Is the farmer richer? Yes. Is the society richer? Yes. Did the price of wheat go down? Yes. Strange. This leads us to an important idea. Money is simply a means to trade for stuff. The more stuff that is produced, the less money it takes to buy it…and this is a good thing.

Think for a moment about almost any modern gadget that you enjoy. At one point in time, it was rare and expensive, but over time, savings allowed capital to improve their production, and as they became more plentiful, the producers and society were better off. Even though the price fell. Consider flat screen televisions: when the first plasma screens came out, a 42 inch model cost $15,000, and the companies only sold a few thousand units to big companies and to rich people. As the technology improved, eventually, the price fell so below $1000, and now, even people on welfare have flat screen televisions. Is society better off? Yes. Are the companies better off selling hundreds of thousands of units at $1000 than before? Yes. Did the price come down? Yes.

One cause of falling prices is that an item is being produced more cheaply than it used to be as we saw in the example of the flat screen televisions. Another cause of falling prices is that people don’t value an commodity as much as they used to. It might be caused by a shift in values–people who value fitness are not as likely to value or purchase donuts and pastries. People might not value a commodity as much as they used to because better items are now being produced. For example, people stopped buying as many Walkmans once MP3 players became less expensive. As it became harder to sell Walkmans because people were buying MP3 players instead, stores lowered the prices on Walkmans. The lower prices sent a signal to the companies that the public no longer needed/wanted as many Walkmans and the companies had better start producing something else. Businesses that ignore these signals and continue to produce unwanted goods will eventually go bankrupt and their capital will be sold to other businesses that will produce goods the public wants—to the benefit of society. This ensures that capital goods are not wasted on products no one wants or needs.

Either way, falling prices are good, because either they convey information. If the cause of falling prices is a reduction in consumer demand, it tells companies that they should shift capital to other products. If the falling prices are due to lowered costs of production, it signals that ordinary people can now purchase items that they could not afford previously. No matter how you cut it, falling prices are good for society.

Why am I repeating myself so much about falling prices? If you turn on the news, you will hear story after story about how falling prices are bad, how falling prices are ruining the economy. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Falling prices are good because they mean more people can afford those things. Falling prices are even better if they are the result of increased production due to capital improvements. And falling prices are also good because they tell businesses what people don’t want.

As Thomas DiLorenzo points out, even poor Americans live better than than kings and queens two hundred years ago with instant access to the entire world’s produce at their local supermarket, and the ability to keep it fresh in their refrigerators; able to hop on a commercial flight and travel thousands of miles in a few hours for about an average day’s pay; able to summon instant entertainment from all over the world with the press of a thumb. (And I will add that a ten-year-old Nintendo Gameboy has more computing power than the Space Shuttle Columbia had on its maiden voyage.) And we have falling prices to thank for it.

I can see clearly now that the rain is gone.

Now that we have established that falling prices are good, we can talk about another economic principle: Not all the results of actions are immediately seen, but people tend to act only on the obvious ones. Henry Hazlitt has an entire (short and very readable) book called Economics in One Lesson dedicated to this idea. He one lesson can boiled down to a single sentence, “The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.” (emphasis in original) After stating the lesson, he applies it to eighteen economic situations and fallacies: The first is the broken window fallacy (first described by Bastiat). Imagine that someone passes by a shop window that was broken by a vandal. At first they begin to commiserate with the shop keeper who will now have to repair the window. But then someone points out that this will give the glass maker more business, who will then have more money to spend and so on, until the vandal becomes a hero because he has stimulated the economy by forcing the shopkeeper to spend money repairing the window.

The fallacy is that the crowd does not see the things the shopkeeper could have used the money for (opportunity cost) had the window not been broken. The shopkeeper might have been planning on expanding his line of products or taking a vacation or buying a new suit, or any number of things that would also have stimulated the economy, but now never will.

The same problem is seen with government spending. When government acts, its efforts are seen, but all of the things that could have been had the government not acted are not seen. And so we come to one of the most pervasive and insidious problem to infest society…rent seeking. Rents, economically speaking, are money or rewards above and beyond what one could get on the free market.

Let us go back to our example of the wheat farmer who has increased his production of wheat from two bushels to four and inadvertently pushed the price of wheat down. The decreased price of wheat means that the farmer will most likely make slightly less money than he anticipated, but still more than he had before. If he is a wise farmer, he will be happy with this arrangement. The lower price will cause other things to happen. Perhaps a farmer who is not as good will stop farming and do something else more productive. Perhaps families will be able to have more children and grow bigger increasing the demand (and price) of wheat. Or perhaps the farmer decides that he would prefer to work less and only produce three bushels of wheat. All of these things are perfectly legitimate, and society will work out the details quite smoothly and automatically.

But, what if the farmer has connections in the government and persuades the government not to let the price of wheat fall? In that case, the farmer will be richer than before, but society will not. In fact, society will be poorer because the artificially high price will induce the farmer and other farmers to produce excess wheat. Fields that might have been used for other crops will be plowed under for wheat. Marginal land like marshes will be used for wheat. People who are not good at farmers will begin to farm wheat. Society will have more wheat than it needs, but not enough of other goods, the environment will be damaged, and needless energy will have been expended on wheat production. Society will be unwilling or unable to purchase all of the farmers’ wheat. Then the wheat will go bad, and the farmer will make less money because not all of the wheat has sold. A disaster all round.

But our enterprising farmer is not done yet. He convinces his connections in government that the government itself should buy up the excess wheat. Now the government takes money from the people who didn’t want to buy the wheat and buys the wheat, which still goes bad. And because of government waste, corruption, and administrative costs, the wheat has now cost society even more than it did before. No matter how politically connected the farmers are, eventually such a scheme will anger the rest of society. Instead of simply scrapping the law that caused the problem in the first place, the government will do such things as putting crop limits on the farmers or even paying the farmers not to farm.

Such schemes to escape falling prices are simply insanity, yet, in the United States they have been going on for more than a hundred years. Every time you eat, you are paying a higher price for your meal because of government interference with farmers. Every time you get paid, a piece of your money is sent to those same farmers who just stole your money last meal. Unanticipated or unseen consequences are more important than the seen ones. The farmers simply wanted to keep their prices from going down, and in the end damaged themselves and society, yet are too blind to see that they are worse off for it.
Falling prices are good.

Mercury rising.

Hazlitt’s book is called Economics in One Lesson for a reason: it takes the single lesson of unseen consequences and applies it to several different scenarios. Since we took so long on falling prices, let us consider the same lesson when applied to rising prices. If falling prices are good, then rising prices must be bad also good. Just as falling prices allow consumers to purchase more of a good, rising prices tell them to purchase less, or to value it more.

Just as there are two basic causes of falling prices (increased production and consumers valuing the product less), there are two causes of rising prices: decreased production and consumers valuing the product more. The third principle of economics is that resources are scarce. Production of a product may fall because of the scarcity of the raw materials that go into its production when compared to its demand. Or production may fall because of natural disasters. For example, following hurricane Katrina, the production of gasoline fell because of damage to Texas refineries. This in turn caused higher prices, which in turn signaled consumers to value it more (i.e., not waste it).

When the price of gasoline is low, people buy bigger cars and trucks, think nothing of taking extra trips to the store, long road trips, or even joyriding. But when the price of gasoline rises because of decreased production, people begin to buy smaller cars, think more carefully about their trips, car pool, and take other gasoline-conserving measures. At the same time, the higher prices send a signal to businesses that they should increase production to take advantage of the opportunity for higher revenues.

Another effect of high prices is that they signal consumers and businesses to look for lower priced alternatives. A classic example is that sugar is more expensive because of the misguided government policies (some of which were) described above. As result, businesses that sold products containing sugar began to look for lower priced substitutes and found high fructose corn syrup. Interestingly, recently, the government has further meddled in the market for corn, causing high fructose corn syrup’s prices to rise, causing some businesses to switch back to sugar.
Another cause of higher prices is a shift in consumers’ values. The day president Obama was elected, the price of ammunition jumped. Prices almost doubled from the day before the election. Some people in the gun community have suggested a government conspiracy, but what actually happened is that people simply valued the ammunition more and were willing to pay a higher price.

The increased prices serve a useful market function. They prevent some people from buying up and hoarding all the ammo. They also discourage frivolous uses such as plinking by telling gun owners to save it for important things like self defense or serious training.

The higher prices also provide businesses with a profit opportunity, signaling them to increase production. The profit opportunity will eventually lower prices by encouraging more businesses to enter the market and for existing ones to scale up their operations.

To recap, higher prices are good because they signal companies to increase production and consumers to reduce consumption and conserve valuable resources. Just as businesses do not like falling prices and sometimes persuade the government to intervene, consumers do not like rising prices and sometimes get government to intervene. Just as there are unintended consequences with preventing falling prices, there are unintended consequences when government prevents rising prices.

When government sets a maximum price (price ceiling) on a good, it reduces the signal to businesses to produce that good resulting in decreased production. Conversely, the artificially low price signals consumers to purchase more of the good. The result is shortages. The lower the price ceiling, the more severe the shortage. A classic example of this was seen in the 1970s when the price of gasoline began rising. Congress implemented a price ceiling on gasoline, and although you probably were not around to have witnessed it, your parents probably had to wait in long lines to get gasoline. Eventually, economists convinced Congress to remove the price ceiling and within a week, the lines were gone and there were no shortages.

A similar example is seen with “anti-gouging” laws which prevent companies from raising rates “too quickly” especially in response to a localized reduction of production. For example, before a hurricane, people anticipate interruptions in gas and food supplies, so they begin to value those items more. But businesses are prevented from raising prices. The result is that everyone goes to the gas station and buys as much gasoline as they can, whether they need it or not, causing long lines and sucking the gas stations dry. They also strip the grocery stores of all their goods. People who heard the news late or had to work later are out of luck. If businesses were allowed to raise prices, people would be more selective in their purchases, leaving gas and groceries available for latecomers.

In a classic example, after Hurricanes Hugo ice went to $10 per bag because power outages made refrigerators useless. This was seen as price gouging, and laws were quickly enacted to prevent it, so naturally ice sold out immediately. Because the price was artificially low (for the situation) ice was not used efficiently. The first few customers bought enough ice to preserve not only their perishable groceries but also non-perishables like beer. Meanwhile, everyone else got nothing. When it had cost $10 a bag, people bought just enough to preserve their perishable groceries leaving enough for later customers. Moreover, because the profit incentive was also artificially low, companies had no reason to ramp up the production of ice nor was ice diverted from areas not affected by the hurricane. In the end, a few early purchasers benefited greatly, and everyone else suffered.

So, one last time: rising prices are good, and falling prices are good. The reason they are good is that they reflect relative production, scarcity, and consumer values. If not interfered with, high prices encourage businesses to enter markets, correctly allocate capital, and increase production to the benefit of society. Low prices signal businesses to shift capital to other goods. From the consumer’s side, low prices enable more consumption, and high prices signal consumers to conserve.

Fight the Machine

At this point, we need to talk about one of the most pervasive economic fallacies–that technology and machines cause unemployment. As seen before, technology and machines allow increased production which enriches society. The case was quite clear in our example of the farmer who bought a sickle. But what happens if instead of a self-employed farmer, we apply a dose of technology to a business with employees?
Imagine for a moment that the owner of an oil field has four employees who can produce eight barrels of oil per day using outdated pumps. The owner saves up (or borrows) and buys newer, faster pumps and can now produce twice as much oil but only needs two employees to run it. Oil production has doubled, so society and the owner are both better off and so are the two employees whose production has increased and will most likely be compensated accordingly. But what about the two employees who are no longer needed? There are three possibilities.

As increased production drives the price of oil down, new customers who could not afford oil before will begin to buy it driving the price up again giving the owner of the oil field incentive to drill a new well reemploying the workers who had previously been unemployed. A second possibility is that the unemployed workers are now free to pursue more pleasant work. A third possibility is that as society as a whole becomes richer and more productive, the oil field owner will have to reduce the work week to keep good employees and will have to hire additional workers to maintain production. In fact, because of this very reason, in the United States the average work week fell from more than sixty hours in the late 1900s to close to forty hours even before unions were able to convince the government to enact legislation requiring employers to pay a premium for work performed after forty hours.

Sometimes the industry that loses jobs is not the same as the one that has increased production due to technology. For example, once it was discovered that kerosene could be refined from oil, the whaling business saw a dramatic decrease in employment. Before kerosene, whale oil was the major source of lighting at night, and only relatively wealthy people could afford it–everyone else went to bed soon after sundown. Kerosene allowed more people to use lighting oil and enjor evenings reading or playing with family. Meanwhile, the whales were saved, and the whalers no longer had to risk all of the horrors you didn’t read about in Moby Dick. And yet, somewhere, there was most likely a whaler’s guild lobbying to outlaw kerosene.

To be sure, some people will lose jobs due to advances in technology, but the losses are temporary, and because of the increased production, the unemployed workers’ money will go farther while they are seeking new employment. This fallacy is a favorite of the “concerned for the downtrodden” crowd. I was first introduced to this fallacy in elementary school when I was told that a single tractor could put 100 farm workers out of work in India. Even then, something seemed wrong with this argument; it seemed to me that picking cotton was not fun work (it is partly why slave labor was used in the United States), and a chance to do something else would be welcome. Yet my social studies teacher would have deprived them of the chance to do less backbreaking labor and deprived the Indian people of the benefits of increased production for the sake of “saving jobs.” Henry Hazlitt dedicates an entire chapter to this fallacy in Economics in One Lesson.

Capital Markets

As discussed earlier, capital makes increased production possible, thereby improving society as a whole. In order to get the capital in the first place, someone or someones must first save. A business can rely on the savings of the owners (who would then be known as capitalists) or they can rely on the savings of someone else by borrowing. Capital markets are where capital is bought and sold. Capital markets make it easier for businesses to find someone willing to take the risk of losing their savings by lending or investing (owning a piece of) someone else’s business. The cost of borrowing capital is interest.

When society consumes more, it saves less, and the relative scarcity of savings is reflected by a higher interest rate. The higher interest rate signals consumers that they should devote more of their productivity to savings, and also sends a signal to businesses that consumers want to consume right now, discouraging borrowing. The converse situation is equally intuitive. When society consumes less, it saves more, and there will be more resources available to loan. As the theory of marginal utility reminds, the more of something there is, the less valuable any given unit will be. This is reflected in a lower interest rate. The lower interest rate sends a signal to businesses that consumers do not want more goods to consume right now, but are planning on consuming them in the future. The lower interest rate also allows businesses to borrow more capital to develop their businesses so as to increase future productivity.

As with prices, interest rates are simply a reflection of the supply and demand of resources available in society for use as captial in improving production. High and low interest rates are neither good nor bad; they simply convey information to consumers and businesses.

Basic Principles of Economics

These principles are generally agreed upon by most contemporary schools of economic thought, but they are presented here as elaborated by the Austrian School of Economics.

People are rational.

The first principle is that people are rational. By rational, we don’t necessarily mean logical, but purposeful–there is a reason for the things they do, no matter how smart or stupid seeming. For example, a drowning person will often desperately grab onto a would-be rescuer, thereby drowning both of them. The drowning person’s actions are completely rational; the rescuer floats, so holding onto them must help the drowner float as well. Unfortunately, their actions lead to their doom instead of salvation. Continuing with our example, being rational, professional lifeguards and rescue swimmers are taught this and how to escape from drowning victims. (See Kevin Costner’s The Guardian for a visual.)
People are imperfect and have desires. These desires are infinite.

Every person has desires and wants…even if it is simply to take another breath or scratch an itch. As long as we live, we will require food, water, and shelter. But even having these, we will want better and more. When you combine the first principle with the second, you get: People are rational (purposeful) in their actions to satisfy their desires. (Note that just because they are rational does not mean they will be successful in any particular degree, and even if they do meet with success, their will always be more desires.)

Resources are scarce.

Even though demands are infinite, the resources to satisfy those demands are not. This concept of scarcity does not mean that there are only a few resources available, simply that they are finite. If you eat an apple, that means you cannot also use it to decorate your table. If you throw an egg at your neighbor’s cat, you cannot also eat it (the egg that is). This is called opportunity cost. Your time and effort are also finite and subject to opportunity cost. If you spend your time in school studying, you will have less for partying. The time and effort it took to write this booklet is time that I was not working on a tan or learning how to kite surf. Economics is about learning the consequences (opportunity costs) of our actions.

Production is king.

Wealth in a society is based on its production. There are only two kinds of goods that can be produced: consumer goods and capital goods. Consumer goods are consumed (used up). Despite the name, a consumer good can be quite durable. For example, a tennis raquet is a consumer good, but a person can get several years of enjoyment out of it. Capital goods are any goods that are used to produce consumer goods (or other capital goods). For example, fire wood is a consumer good. An axe or saw would be a capital good that is used to produce the fire wood. The key aspect to economics is that capital goods allow more consumer goods to be produced, making society richer, because Production is King. Hail to the King, Baby!

What’s Labor Got To Do With It?

In order to produce goods, resources are mixed with labor and sometimes capital goods. For example, fallen wood can be gathered (labor) without the use of any capital goods, but its collection (production) can be increased with a wheelbarrow (capital good), and its quality may be enhanced by splitting it with an axe (capital good). Capital goods are usually technological but can also be information or knowledge.

Specialization is the key.

In primitive societies…so primitive that we don’t really know of any…everyone had to do everything for themselves (produce food, clothing, shelter, protection, and entertainment). Very quickly, people figured out that people with big pudgy hands weren’t as good at sewing; people with big muscles were better at protection; etc. Thus specialization was born. People who specialized in one or two things were more productive than someone who had to do everything for themselves. Economists call this division of labor. The division of labor can happen on any scale, from families, to cities, to entire countries.

Trade makes the world go round.

Once people began to specialize, they had to begin to trade. The sewer had to trade the weaver for cloth. Both had to trade with farmers or hunters for food. The hunter had to trade with the fletcher for arrows. And so on. When two people trade, they both become richer because they both have something they want more. We call this a win-win trade or a positive-sum gain. The weaver has more cloth than she could ever wear. When she trades it for food, the hunter now has clothes and food, and the weaver now has food and clothes. They are both better off…as long as they enter into the trade willingly and knowingly.

This introduces us to one of our first crimes: fraud. Fraud is simply misrepresenting oneself or one’s goods. The misrepresentation can be about the quantity of the good, the quality of the good, the ability to deliver the good, or one’s ownership of the good.

Value is marginally subjective.

Everyone has different desires, and different ideas about how to satisfy them. This is called the subjective theory of value. Think about what you would like for dessert tonight. Some of you thought about fruit, while others cake or ice cream, and others cheese. Think about how much you would be willing to pay for that dessert. Some of you would be willing to pay more than others.

This brings us to our next concept: The marginal theory of value. This simply means that more of something that someone has, the less he values any one of them. For example, someone who has 2 Chocolate Sin Cakes is more likely to share than someone who has one. Someone who has a bag of marbles is more likely not to care if one marble is lost than someone who only has one. Someone who has a wallet full of cash is less likely to notice when their son steals a bill than someone with only a few dollars. This concept is extremely important.

  1. Other things being equal, it’s better to have more of something than less of something.
  2. The more of whatever you have, the less valuable any one of them is.
  3. The lower the value, the lower the price.

Which bring us to THE LAW OF DEMAND: The greater the quantity, the lower the price someone is willing to pay, and conversely, the higher the price, the lower the quantity demanded (all other things being equal).

And what if things aren’t equal? Then you can increase (or decrease) price and quantity simultaneously. For example, during the New York power outage a few years ago, all the dollar stores sold out of candles, and people were reselling them for $5 on the sidewalk. People suddenly valued the candles more highly because of the blackout, leading to an increase in both price and the quantity demanded. Under ordinary circumstances, a rise in the price of candles would result in fewer candles being sold.

Economics and Finance for Nurses (and other sundry folk)

Finances is half self control, mixed with one part economics, one part politics, two parts current events, and seasoned with math. This “book” ties together various finance and economic resources. This first page gives a brief overview of each one and links to further reading and resources.

Self Control

Self control is the most important aspect to personal finances. To live comfortably without worries, it is absolutely imperative that you live within your means. That means that you make more money than you spend. It’s simple, but it’s hard, because most of us didn’t have good role models growing up, and the entire culture from your school teachers to the news (let alone advertising) tells you the opposite.

I’m not going to spend much space here, because it’s relatively simple to understand. If you find yourself in debt, the absolute first step is to stop spending more than you make. The second step is to pay off your debt. There are multiple techniques to do it, but the most common is usually called a debt snowball—you put every dime of extra money toward paying off your smallest debt. Once that debt is paid, the same amount plus the money freed by the first debt are applied to the next debt. Every time you pay off a loan, the amount of money you have to apply to the next debt becomes bigger (just like a snowball rolling down the mountain).

Once you have paid off all your loans (other than a home mortgage), many families find they can pay off their mortgage within five to seven years. Two things have happened during this time: 1) You have grown accustomed to living within your means, and 2) You have known the pain of paying off your debts. At this point, you probably have well over $2000 extra a month to save. Budget a small amount to living, and use the rest to save for your long term goals (owning your own business, retiring early, taking missions trips, owning a ranch, etc.).

Debt elimination and budgeting are huge topics, and I really don’t have anything novel to add. I do highly recommend reading the book, The Millionaire Next Door, for its countercultural research that the most successful people are thrifty, monogamous families.

Economics

You absolutely need to have a modicum of economic understanding in order to make sound financial decisions, so I’ve put the economic issue next. The key piece of economic understanding that you need to know is that money’s value is not constant, and that having a certain amount does not guarantee anything.

Here’s a simple example. You are a poor nursing student and you have $100 a month to use for your personal expenses. If everything you normally buy costs exactly $100, you break even. If the price drops by half, you now have $50 extra to spend at the end of the month. You are now richer, even though you did not make any extra money. On the other hand, if you get a 100% raise to $200 a month, but price double, you are no richer or poorer— you still break even.

The application of the lesson is simple. You can become poorer even though the amount of money in your bank and retirement accounts grows. Value is now the same as money. (Becoming poorer despite having more money is usually caused by inflation, which is explained later.) There is a whole lot more to understanding economics in regards to financial decisions, but that is the most important.

Skip to Economic Resources

Politics and Current Events

I’m going to deal with these two things together, because it is changes in politics that truly influence financial decisions, so you can think of it in terms of current events (and taxes). For example, in 2007, as gas prices soared and oil company profits soared, politicians began to talk about special taxes to confiscate these “obscene profits.” In another example, candidate Obama promised no tax increase for households making less than $250,000, but president Obama recently said he is “agnostic” about tax increases. A potential tax increase could seriously affect your finances.

The key thing about politics is that reporting is often skewed by those reporting it. So for political news affecting finances, I prefer to read libertarian news and commentary, because they hate both conservative and liberal politics. My absolute favorite source of political information is FreedomWatch with Judge Andrew Napolitano. (Lewrockwell.com is the main site I read for this, and they regularly feature articles by the economic commentators I mention below.)

Current events are important, because they effect the value of money and investments. Prices are just information about people’s values, and their values change depending on their circumstances. For example, the WHI trial was stopped because they thought that the estrogen may have been causing cancer. Overnight, the value of Wyeth (the maker of Premarin and Prempro) dropped by half. The rest of Wyeth’s products were sound, and the company was in no danger of losing half its revenue, so I bought Wyeth stock, and the price went back up to its previous level within the year. I ended up almost doubling my money (unfortunately, at the time, I didn’t have much money to invest, so double not much is only a little bit more but the principle is the same).

Other important current events to keep track of include the Federal Reserve’s actions, laws that affect you or your investments, wars, global trade, and elections. Of course it’s best if your source of current events is filtered and explained by someone knowledgeable about economics. The important thing to remember about current events and predictions is that even though an “investment guru” may be right about what is going to happen, if the timing is off (or your timing), then you might still lose money. A few of my favorite writers on this matter include:

All three of them agree that current U.S. government policies will ultimately lead to inflation and loss of value for the dollar. All agree that gold is currently a good hedge against inflation.

Some looming political current events

There are two terms that you should be familiar with given the current economic and global events. The first is sovereign risk. This refers to the risk that a country will not pay its debts. It can be done by outright repudiation, such as Hitler did in the 1930s, or by announcing inability to pay, such as Mexico did in the 1980s, or more commonly, a country can inflate (print money) and then pay its debts with worthless currency. The reason sovereign debt is the buzz word of the day is because of Greece and the so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain). All of them are Eurozone members who have very high deficit to GDP ratios and debt to GDP ratios. The fear is that they will not be able to pay back their loans. As Eurozone members, they do not have the ability to print money, so they cannot even pretend to pay back their debt with worthless money. The big question is whether the other Eurozone countries will bail out the PIGS.

Two reasons you should care about sovereign risk: 1) It affects investment decisions, and 2) The United States deficit to GDP figures are almost as high as Greece’s (something like 12% vs 12.8%). But for some reason, most people (esp. Americans) are blind to the fact that the United States is now a high risk investment. Worldwide, however, the U.S. government has had a much harder time selling bonds. If the U.S. government cannot sell enough bonds to cover its operating cost…it’s anyone’s call.

The second term you should be familiar with is regime uncertainty. This occurs when investors do not want to risk their money for fear of actions the government could take. For example, 2007, with record oil and gas prices and oil company profits, U.S. politicians began to talk about special taxes on just oil companies. One congressman, Maxine Waters, even threatened to nationalize the oil companies. Talk like that most likely discouraged potential investors from investing in oil companies. (Who wants to own a company the U.S. government is going to take over?)

Other causes of regime uncertainty recently include the 2008-2009 bailouts, possible Cap and Trade legislation, healthcare reform, and the circumventing of bankruptcy laws in the Chrysler case.

Math

Yes, I’m looking at you K____! T____! C____! The good news is that you don’t have to do most of the math yourself. Spreadsheets can do most of the math for you, and if the formula is too complicated, there are plenty of financial calculators on the internet to calculate everything from mortgage interest to capital gains tax. You can also use personal finance software, such as Quicken.

Spreadsheets

You need to use a spreadsheet for your budgeting and long term planning. Think of it as smart graph paper. Every block (cell) has an address made up of its column (a letter) and its row (a number). So the first cell is A1, the next to the right is A2, etc. If you want to perform math on some cells, just type “=” and then a formula. So if you want to add 100 to cell A2, you type “=A2+100”. If you want to subtract the contents of A3 from A2, type “=A2-A3”. You can also use more advanced functions such as sum and average.

The most common spreadsheet is Excel, which is part of Microsoft Office. While you are still a student, you can purchase Office from the Bookstore at a 90% discount. You may want to consider doing so. Alternatively, you can download OpenOffice for free.

The budget spreadsheet at the bottom of this page can be opened in either spreadsheet and already contains common expenses you may encounter and formulas to track your cash flow.

What next?

This is just a brief introduction to these issues. We will explore each one on the next few pages.

Gun Safety – Keep your finger off the trigger

A few days ago, I posted a story about a shotgun that seemed to be unloaded when it actually was loaded. Today, I’d like to talk about a different kind of safety violation—the one ultimately responsible for probably the majority of all gun accidents: putting your finger on the trigger. But a movie is worth 10,000 words, so watch the videos, and then we’ll talk.

So to reiterate, Jeff Cooper’s four laws of gun safety:

  1. All guns are always loaded
  2. Never let the muzzle cover anything you don’t want to destroy.
  3. Keep your finger off the trigger until your sights are on the target [and you are ready to shoot].
  4. Always be sure of your target.

Jeff Cooper is reported to have said that the 3rd law alone could probably prevent something like two thirds gun accidents. Of course putting one’s finger on the trigger is the first thing most gun newbies (and even oldbies) do. Remember when Vice President Dick Cheney shot a hunting partner by accident? Finger on the trigger. The guy in the second video? Finger on the trigger when he fell? The guy in the third video? Violations of rules 1, 2, and 3. (And the next time you think only cops should have guns, remember that he was the only guy in the room professional enough to carry a Glock 40.)

People who have been using guns for years often put their finger on the trigger when inappropriate, even so-called professionals. Why? Well, ignorance and bad role models most likely. But even if you have the bad guy in your sights, your finger should still be off the trigger unless you want to shoot. We’ll discuss why in a moment. But it’s not enough to simply not put your finger on the trigger; you shouldn’t even have it in the trigger guard. Your finger should be straight and placed on the frame of the gun above the trigger guard.

Bad Role Models

thumb_24s7-jack.jpgHollywood is replete with bad examples. Pick almost any movie where characters use a gun, and you’re likely to find people with their finger on the trigger. It seems that the generic bad guys tend to have better finger discipline than the stars. Take Jack Bauer of 24 for example. For the first five seasons, he consistently has his finger on the trigger.

Jack-Bauer-24-36841_1024_768_thumb.jpgFinally somewhere between season six and seven, he gained a small amount of finger discipline—at least on the poster—but in the actual show, his trigger finger discipline seems to disappear. Contrast that with the character of Samantha Carter in Stargate SG-1, and you’ll find that her trigger finger discipline is always impeccable. Still the bad examples outweigh the good ones ten to one (at least).

And you’re ready to shoot…

Generally speaking, Randy Cain doesn’t like it when people try to rearrange or edit the Four laws, but for rule three, he most certainly expounds the “and you’re ready to shoot addendum.” Go watch the first video again. The female policeman…person…officer had her sights on the target, but she most assuredly did not want to shoot. The problem is that our hands are made so that our fingers work together. Try this exercise. Hold your hand out straight. Now keep your pointer (trigger finger) straight while you curl your other three finger inward (like you’re holding a gun). I bet you can’t do it. There is a fancy name for it that escapes me at the moment (something like sympathetic grasp reflex), but the bottom line is, when you are in a stressful situation, adrenaline pumping, and you’re holding on to that gun for dear life, the stronger your grip, the more likely you are to accidentally pull the trigger due to the sympathetic grasp.

So the take home message is, don’t put your finger on the trigger unless you intend to actually shoot.

Avatar – Movie Review and Analysis

I saw Avatar yesterday. It is one of the most hyped and promoted movies of the year, yet many of the ads neglect to let you know that the movie is in 3-D. Here are some thoughts and opinions on the movie.

To 3D or Not To 3D

Athumb_avatar.jpgvatar certainly stands as a breakthrough in 3D technology and movie making, as the movie was shot and designed as a 3D movie from the ground up. The 3D takes a meh movie and turns it into something spectacular. There are moments in the movie where I thought, “If I were seeing this on the regular screen, I would be bored out of my mind, but because it’s 3D, I don’t mind so much.” Think of how the 12 minute podracing scene in the Phantom Menace bogged down the whole middle section of the movie. Well if George Lucas had made it in 3D, it wouldn’t have done so.

For the most part, James Cameron doesn’t engage in the cheap trick of having 3D objects being hurled at you in an attempt to get you to duck. Very few of the 3D effects pop out of the screen. Often the most effective use of 3D in the movie is simple ambiance. For example, as the scientists move through the forest the bees buzz around them and out of the screen, making it more immersive. It also highlights one of the current weakness of the 3D technology—fast moving objects lose focus and clarity. Certainly, the coolest 3D visuals are the virtual and holographic displays in the helicopters and in the science labs. The 3D image of the brain scan is simply amazing.

It will be interesting to see how the technology and movie making develop. For example, I felt distracted from the movie in several instances because the background of some shots is blurred, while the foreground is in sharp focus. Yes, this is similar to how the eye operates, but in real life, you could choose to focus on the background if you wanted to. In the movie, the choice has been made for you.

As many have pointed out, the 3D isn’t perfect, but it is a breakthrough, and in the same way that the first Star Wars trilogy’s effects are painful to watch now, at the time, there was nothing like them. I highly recommend watching it in 3D.

Of course then you have the question of which kind of 3D, RealD or Imax 3D? The best description of the different technologies I have been able to find is this article. Basically, the Imax screen is bigger and closer to you, so even without 3D, it seems more like you are in the movie. You have to turn your head to see different parts of the screen, because the screen is too big for your field of vision. Meanwhile, RealD is shown on a traditional (smaller) movie screen, so the 3D effects seem more “in the screen” than popping out at you.

We saw it on RealD. I don’t think I’m willing to spend the additional $12 to see it again on Imax 3D to see which one I would prefer. I’ll wait for a better movie to do that.

Update: I saw it again on a Liemax screen at Muvico. It was a bit underwhelming. This time, I wasn’t able to sit in the center of the theater, and that definitely made a difference when the effects were “out of the screen”. I really couldn’t tell any difference between the two technologies except that the Imax glasses are much less comfortable to wear for two and a half hours. On the other hand, another friend saw it both on RealD and at a real Imax theater, and he said there was no comparison, the real Imax blew away the RealD version.

Is this Dances With Wolves?

Avatar’s story is clearly derivative. It’s your basic, person goes to another culture and eventually identifies more with it and turns on his former “friends”. You’ve seen it done as boring as can be in Dances With Wolves. You’ve seen it done with visual flair in The Last Samurai. And now you’ve seen it in 3D in Avatar. As always, the best aspects of these movies are in the joy of discovery and gradual acceptance of the outsider into society. Avatar excels in the discovery department mostly because of the 3D visuals. The story aspect and gradual acceptance takes a back seat.

The movie is quite preachy on many levels, and this is its major flaw. No one wants to go to an escape movie to be preached at—especially an escape movie of this scale. The themes of terrorism, U.S. army occupation, ignorant Americans, and environmental destruction are all present even though some of them seem very strained. The cartoonish, over the top, Rambo-style head of security says, “We’ll fight terrorism with terrorism,” even though the guys in blue hadn’t done anything aggressive, let alone terrorism.

I also don’t understand why movie makers have to so confuse science and religion, nature and the supernatural. George Lucas completely ruined the force by making it the result of midachlorians. We were fine accepting that in the Star Wars world, the Force existed as a supernatural phenomenon, but once it is revealed that the Force is nothing more than the action of mitochodria midachlorians, the whole thing just becomes hokey. In Avatar, the aliens and animals have some kind of exposed neural interface that they can use to communicate. Some of the plants also have it, and when one of the aliens dies, they bury the body with a seed, and the consciousness of the person is preserved in the resulting tree, making the forest a giant planetary neural network of ancestors—a very cool idea. Then James Cameron has to ruin it by making it nothing more than tribal animism. For me, this is the weakest aspect of the movie.

Despite the preachiness, much of it is simply James Cameron being James Cameron. The Terminator shows his distrust of growing technology—ironic for someone who pushes it so. Watch Aliens, and you’ll see the same basic ideas and themes:

  • Tough talking Hispanic soldier? Check
  • Evil corporation exploiting aliens? Check
  • Weaselly corporate suit who doesn’t understand what he’s up against? Check
  • Cool military hardware? Check
  • Epic battles ending up in a one on one mech duel? Check
  • Sigourney Weaver? Check

Other thoughts and observations

Apparently you can show naked breasts on the big screen and still get a PG-13 rating as long as they belong to blue aliens. (Must be the 2010 equivalent National Geographic documentaries.)

Who would have thought that Zoe Saldana would be sexier as an eight foot, blue, tiger striped alien than as a Federation officer?

zoe-saldana-comparison2_hgt300.jpg        zoe-saldana-comparison_med.jpg

Is it just me or do the Na’vi look remarkably like Vincent (played by the ineffable Ron Perlman) from Beauty and the Beast which happened to also star Linda Hamilton who starred in both Terminator movies and married James Cameron?

vincent-avatar-comparison_hgt300.jpg

So should I see it?

If you like movies, by all means yes. (In fact, you should see it in both Imax and RealD and then let me know which is better and why.) It’s a very entertaining movie with spectacular visual effects. So watch it, ignore the silly and preachy aspect, and be excited for the coming 3D developments in movie making…now if Peter Jackson would just go back and remake the Lord of the Rings in 3D…